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0 pointsksec5y ago0 comments

>I mean Ive got to think you must know both those points are true.

Hardware relating Comments on HN has always been fairly low quality to say the least, comparatively speaking to many other subjects. But Apple M1 sort of brings the worst out of it. My current counting right now over 10K comment suggest most have very limited understanding of Hardware tech, little on Hardware business, and quite literally zero on supply chain.

So I would not be suspired If many doesn't know.

I could count people with one hand who have to constantly comment and correcting all the wrong assumption, TSMC capacity limitation, NAND and DRAM price fixing etc etc. And now we have Apple's supply chain monopoly.

The world currently ships approx ~1.2B Smartphone every year, and Apple represent less than 20% of it. And if you include Tablet, PC and Laptop ( Which shares the same supply chain ) Apple is much closer to 10%. The premium Apple pays is not leading edge ( apart from 5nm TSMC ) but very strict quality control and capacity guarantee.

My observation into this issue, is that most software developers and tech workers are so far removed from old model ( non-tech ) of business they have very little understanding of Logistics, Supply Chain, Lead Time, Sales Channel, Distribution and Discovery ( Marketing ). And ironically enough the world best company at doing all of the above is also a tech Company called Apple.

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saurik5y ago

FWIW, it is because we read articles like this one, and because we are constantly told that Apple has exclusive deals for good touch screens from Samsung (who happens to also make the one other good line of competing phones, and which you explicitly stated was a place where people are wrong).

https://thenextweb.com/apple/2011/08/21/apple-locks-its-riva...

> How Apple locks its rivals out of the tablet market with exclusive sourcing deals

Care to explain how we are wrong instead of just claiming we are dumb? I promise that if you educate me (somewhat a bit famous in the "hating on Apple" space) I will help educate others. (Though, FWIW, I do know that a lot of Apple's hardware is semi-custom design, and so if the argument is that I know but find it irrelevant for this comment thread. I am focusing on the belief that Apple makes it hard for others to source parts, which has a lot of history to it.)

ksecOP5y ago

I guess I will write a long blog post when I have time. But that article is from 2011. So that perspective were correct at the time but no longer relevant now.

Example when the first iPad using NAND launched, Apple secured nearly 60% of the world's total NAND production capacity. That was not a monopoly or exclusive deal. It was out of necessity. Securing a stable supply of critical component is the norm is any industry. It is up to the manufacture to decide whether they should expand their capacity to meet demand ( from others ).

In again NAND example, since the cost of building a new fab and amortisation time is far too long, most would delay any Capex spending until it is absolutely necessary. With high demand and fixed supply, NAND and DRAM price were sky high, and Samsung managed to be the most profitable company for 3 quarters in 2017, only to be overtaken by Apple. The profits then fasten the capacity increase cycle because the risk are now comparatively lower.

Smaller players who do not have the volume, forecast and commitment will always be left at the will of their manufacturing partners. But partners / vendors will always complain these players dont give ( accurate ) forecast. Capacity planning in itself is a profession. And these are common, if not the norm across all Manufacturing industries, from Food, Metal, Raw Mats or even Transport like DHL where they have Data Scientist working on Flight Space ( Their unit of capacity ).

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