Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy (opens in new tab)

(journals.sagepub.com)

51 pointsnick2k35y ago12 comments

12 comments

Could it be the detection isn’t as specific as promised?

Isn't this old news? There is a growing body of evidence that the virus was already spreading throughout Europe in winter 2019.

Here's a paper suggesting that

> SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09248...

sudosysgen5y ago

This was in September, not December.

scottlocklin5y ago

There was some stuff about Spain in March 2019, though I didn't follow the paper enough to see if it made it into publication or was bad methodology

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v...

azepoi5y ago

Exponential growth takes some time at the start before it is noticeable. And then it's unmanageable. Look at the time between the first and the second wave in Italy or France. It took a few months to become uncontrolled again after the lockdown was lifted. So before it was exploding in northern Italy around February it likely needed a few months of spreading throughout society too.

m0llusk5y ago

But this coronavirus is not capable of exponential growth. It does spread quickly, but not that quickly. The most well known exponential growth model of SARS-CoV2 infections is the Imperial College model which has proven to be at least one order of magnitude off in its predictions. The most accurate model of SARS-CoV2 spread currently available is that published by Michael Levitt which predicts SARS-CoV2 comes well short of exponential spread even in worst case scenarios. The only reason we thought there was exponential growth is because the beginning of the epidemic was so poorly understood.

azepoi5y ago

Of course it's not really exponential. And even the simplest SIR toy model does not output an exponential solution, except as an aproximation at the start. My point was simply that it took several months between very low numbers at the end of the first lockdown and the decision to put a second albeit lighter lockdown in France and (at least parts of) Italy. So one should not be surprised that the virus was circulating for several months before the problem became really noticeable in february.

octonion5y ago

Is this a serious, peer-reviewed journal? I'm not familiar with it.

aaomidi5y ago

https://www.scimagojr.com/journalsearch.php?q=13175&tip=sid&... It's "okay"

blackrock5y ago

So you’re saying that this isn’t a “China Virus” after all?

rurban5y ago

No, just that it arrived much earlier than thought. Same as in San Francisco and France.

m0llusk5y ago

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