It's not guaranteed like a FAANG salary (which actually isn't completely, the past few years have seen great stock appreciation), usually it takes a few rolls of the dice, but it's just not accurate to describe it as a definite 0. Startup selection ability pays a serious role here, I've seen people whose picks I shake my head at consistently, and some people who can home in on successful ones like heatseeking missiles. If you're the type to take the story of a business person about lofty valuations and prospects at face value, though, you're probably going to have a bad time and end up bitter and talking about how bad a deal startups are on the internet.
But basically, you really need to do your homework and treat it like you’re making an investment.
For everyone else, the last point is CRUCIAL
> treat it like you’re making an investment
Remember, if you are giving up a market total-comp package (e.g., 200 or 300k+) for a below-market startup package -- you are literally investing the difference. Treat the difference as an investment.
Also keep in mind, unlike public stock or real estate investments this major, you also often have no visibility into financials -- discount for that.
You also cant sell when you may need to -- discount for that also.
Unlike a property or stocks, you dont get interim dividends/yield -- discount for that also.
You may also be forced to invest heavily or forgo stock if you leave the company -- discount for that.
