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0 pointsbena5y ago0 comments

Yeah, but what if we could never roll that particular die again?

I think that's what he's talking about.

0 comments

This is just Frequentism vs Bayesianism, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations

You treat the forecaster as the dice, not a particular forecast from them. You can measure their forecasts with reality.

benaOP5y ago

Yes, I'm not defending the original guy, I'm just stating what I believe his argument to be.

He's basically saying he doesn't believe the die is fair/unweighted.

So stating the odds of a fair die is kind of immaterial to his point. We need to demonstrate to the guy that the die is fair.

Someone else posted a link (I think) of 538 going over on how accurate they were. Whether their odds bore out. Here it is: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

Basically what they did was bucket every prediction by odds. If they predicted 70/30, it went in that bucket. And they're "right" at about the rate of their predictions. In other words, for every 70/30 prediction they made, the people/teams with 70% chance to win, won about 70% of the time.

That shows that 538 in this case is pretty decent at calculating odds.

bart_spoon5y ago

Yes, which is why it’s foolish to talk about the outcome of that single race. You are right that there will never be another 2016 election between Clinton and Trump. However, that is only one of hundreds of forecasts made by 538 across multiple election cycles, so we can see how often their probabilistic outcomes align with actual outcomes. The fact that their track record is fairly good across all of these is evidence suggesting that Trump’s win may be more likely to be the realization of a less likely outcome predicted by their model, rather than a fundamental problem of their model itself.

benaOP5y ago

Like I told the other guy, I'm not defending his position, I'm stating it in different terms. And stating why pointing out the odds of a fair die isn't a good counter argument.

Grandposter doesn't believe the die is fair. That's a different argument than the guy I responded to made.

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mac010215y ago

This is just Frequentism vs Bayesianism, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations

NhanH5y ago

You treat the forecaster as the dice, not a particular forecast from them. You can measure their forecasts with reality.

benaOP5y ago

Yes, I'm not defending the original guy, I'm just stating what I believe his argument to be.

He's basically saying he doesn't believe the die is fair/unweighted.

So stating the odds of a fair die is kind of immaterial to his point. We need to demonstrate to the guy that the die is fair.

Someone else posted a link (I think) of 538 going over on how accurate they were. Whether their odds bore out. Here it is: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

That shows that 538 in this case is pretty decent at calculating odds.

bart_spoon5y ago

benaOP5y ago

Like I told the other guy, I'm not defending his position, I'm stating it in different terms. And stating why pointing out the odds of a fair die isn't a good counter argument.

Grandposter doesn't believe the die is fair. That's a different argument than the guy I responded to made.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse