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0 pointsOJFord5y ago0 comments

I think if you started speculative stock-picking in March (as it seems many did) then it's quite likely you did pretty well. If you (that person) got out ~now, it's probably been a.. well, at least a year with a nice silver lining.

(If you that person carried on it's not necessarily bad of course, but then you're just any old investor, it was a good year and maybe you'll have more good and more bad.)

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rootusrootus5y ago· 2 in thread

Anecdotally, I suspect a few people hosed themselves this year in the stock market. I met a few people early on in the pandemic who thought themselves very smart for paying attention to the news and getting their money out of the market before the first big drop.

Admittedly, I haven't talked to them since, but they didn't seem to expect it to bounce right back up again. I wonder how many people out there did something similar.

I remember back in 2008 one of the older voice engineers I knew, who was in his 60s and getting ready to retire, panicked and moved his money out of the market (it's a separate question why he still had so much in stocks) near the low point. He quietly canceled his retirement and worked another 5 years. Whoops.

OJFordOP5y ago

That's why I emphasised started in March. As in started putting new money in in at or around the low, I think plenty of that happened.

Frankly I'm kicking myself for not doing as you say. I 'thought myself very smart' by being aware of it over the new year, reading how bad it will be, thinking markets will tank, and sticking to my guns because 'I won't try to time the dip'. And then of course with a modest amount of new money in March thought 'if I'd sold in January I'd definitely be pound cost averaging back in now, even if not piling back in, I'm an idiot for being 'sensible''.

If I had though I'd probably be thinking it's crazy at the moment (or especially a week or two ago) and piling back out... Remains to be seen how well that would've gone.

I think really it's all a good argument for separating 'boring, don't touch it, keep buying', and 'fun, dabble, hobby speculation'. Where the latter should be funded appropriately for what it is, a hobby.

rootusrootus5y ago

> Where the latter should be funded appropriately for what it is, a hobby.

Agree 100%. The vast majority of my savings goes into an index fund and I keep on adding to it like clockwork every paycheck, and I avoid even thinking about it. I very specifically kept my fingers away from the keyboard when the pandemic was unfolding. I do like to play stocks for fun however, even options when I'm feeling spicy, but I do that with my 'lunch money' aka hobby money I'd have just spent on something else.

javiramos5y ago

Stock portfolios aside, it has still been a tough year -- lots of negative emotions and vibes.

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