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0 pointshcknwscommenter5y ago0 comments

I cannot fathom how your link could possibly support your contention that 0-4 and 5-17 are "definitely" a 99.99% survival rate (IFR of 0.01% or 1 fatality out of every 10,000 infections). I suspect you are misreading the table? Care to elaborate?

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elcritch5y ago

Taking the data from the linked table for say 35-44 year olds is 1,798 deaths out of ~43 million population bracket, excluding influenza cases. That’s a 99.9956% survival rate. Taking all covid-19 and influenza it’s still a 99.9903% survival rate.

lostdog5y ago

Nope, you're not even close to calculating the survival rate correctly. The population of ~43 million is the entire population, not the set of people who were infected.

elcritch5y ago

Schucks, you’re right, I didn’t read the fine print on the CDC site. Still it’s not as far off as that sort of error would seem to indicate.

According to this Sep 2020 article on reason.com (1) they quote CDC numbers of a 99.98 survival rate (0.02% IFR) for 20-to-49-year-olds. Or a 99.997% survival rate (0.003 IFR) percent among people 19 or less.

1: https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates...

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rednerrus5y ago

How about this one: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27597.pdf?

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elcritch5y ago

lostdog5y ago

Nope, you're not even close to calculating the survival rate correctly. The population of ~43 million is the entire population, not the set of people who were infected.

elcritch5y ago

Schucks, you’re right, I didn’t read the fine print on the CDC site. Still it’s not as far off as that sort of error would seem to indicate.

1: https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates...

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rednerrus5y ago

How about this one: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27597.pdf?

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