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0 pointsarrrg5y ago0 comments

Deaths are probably more instructive – just to get a ballpark number. If only because deaths are less likely to overlook too many people.

If the IFR is around 1% we would expect around 1,000,000 deaths if one third of Americans have to be infected for herd immunity. So that would suggest the US is 20 percent of the way there.

Given the haphazard way of calculating these numbers I would, however, put huge error bars around some (something like ±15 percentage points at least).

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sfblah5y ago

I agree strongly with this type of analysis. The data we're seeing is strongly skewed by all kinds of biases. Looking at deaths at least removes one big piece of bias.

I too suspect areas are achieving some limited herd immunity. I don't think the behavioral changes adopted in the US have done much. Mostly, I just think less social people aren't getting it. More social people are.

nradov5y ago

Our best estimate of IFR is closer to 0.6%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

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