Look, I'm not saying I doubt that. If the tool fits your needs, more power to you. But that won't be the case for everyone. Eventually, some firms need to reach for the power tools that AWS has, or simply the reach in terms of reliability. Things like SQS, Aurora, Sagemaker, CloudWatch, CloudFormation, Redshift, S3, Glacier, Lambda, Fargate, availability zone reach, raw EC2 + EBS.

It's about ecosystems. Heroku has a decent ecosystem, but nowhere near AWS or Azure. I find it far more likely that AWS and/or Azure will improve their ecosystems to attain parity with the gold standard Heroku (or Render for you) DX in the small but which can scale all the way up. But you may find that a tall tale, and if so I would understand. The track record on the AWS/Azure side isn't great. But the latter did acquire GitHub, and I fully expect them to exploit that. I would be surprised if AWS lets them 1-up their incumbency through that vector without neutralizing it.