> There is no StackOverflow for trading, or betting. Nobody gives away their edge for free, although they may give away their trades.
This isn't trading, though. It's forecasting. You could make that argument about the sub-category of economic forecasts, perhaps. But not about more general things, like presidential elections.
> Imagine a strategy that has a 50% chance of blowing you up completely over 10 years, but nets you 50% more profit if it works. The average return of this strategy is 25% less than a safe strategy (zero risk, zero gain), but it has a 50% chance of winning in this marketplace. If it were real money, nobody would go near it.
People go near real money strategies like that all the time. That's all WallStreetBets is, or the financial crisis, for that matter. I do take your point that this behavior may be more pronounced in a community like this, but I don't think it invalidates the model.
