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0 pointstaylorhughes5y ago0 comments

This is something we're thinking about continuously; it's unclear how central the prediction %s themselves should be. I am hopeful our core community can become more accurate over time, and get better and better at surfacing new information to make the market more efficient. We'll be evaluating this throughout...

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3 comments · 1 top-level

nl5y ago· 2 in thread

That's good, but I suspect continual monitoring of headline markets ("who will win the US Election") is insufficient because FB is big enough to influence the result.

What are you going to do if (when) you detect manipulation? You won't be able to take it offline without the President using it as an example of "liberal bias", and you won't be able to ban users because of the same thing.

I know you won't do this, but I think you should experiment with some lower-stake markets first, and potentially use participation in those as a gate to the high stakes markets.

tomgp5y ago

These are really really important points and the fact that Facebook is launching products without solid and convincing answers to these issues is a big worry.

This is a fascinating product and potentially of great value but the size and visibility of Facebook means that the potential for unintended consequences is BIG.

taylorhughesOP5y ago

Gating could be a good idea; I think also leaning less on the aggregate/average and more on the positions from reliable participants in the market would be important once there's any kind of influence or scale to this product.

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