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0 pointspydry5y ago0 comments

Yes.

You're skeptical that a far right Russian political network might have strong military connections who would have access?

I would also be skeptical of this idea if I truly believed that Putin had the extreme iron grip over military/FSB that he tries to portray. I believe it's quite a bit more chaotic there than he'd want you to believe though. I'm sure their opsec is not as good as it is in the US. After the SU fell they even auctioned off arms.

As to why not a gun - 1) it's quiet and surreptitious. 2) I reckon it might also be a message TO putin 3) I'm pretty sure they would want putin to be seen as responsible for the murder.

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mhh__5y ago· 2 in thread

I would be sceptical that it was done "by" Putin if I believed that he was in control?

Novichok is rare ("[there is not] a single case of such poison being sold illegally" according to the director of the Russian plant that manufactured it [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent#cite_note-FP453...]), and has only been observed in the wild in the hands of organizations like the GRU (at least in the west). Poisoning Navalny certainly should've required top level approval from someone, if not Putin then it's highly embarrassing - whose head is rolling?

pydryOP5y ago

I'm pretty sure that the origin of the novichok is the Soviet or Russian military.

HOWEVER

As I said, after the fall of the Soviet Union there was a free for all on Russian arms. It was chaos. This was even documented in the Nicholas Cage movie God of war.

I think it's fairly plausible that novichok was taken by Soviet military officers during that free for all and kept at home. Novichok is supposed to be stable for up to 50 years.

Skripal was interesting coz he blew the covers of about 100 GRU agents and was part of a spy swap. There is cover in having 100 people with motives.

Putin just after the poisoning was demanding (somewhat desperately I thought) that the UK send him evidence. I thought that was telling. It suggested he was just as keen to get to the bottom of it.

mhh__5y ago

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

The British Inquiry (page ~245) concluded that it was likely the hit on Litvinenko was ordered close to the top. Putin was a KGB officer - he now doesn't take an interest anymore?

And if he blew the covers of 100 officers, they would've been under deep cover i.e. not going around assassinating people and going home on the plane.

In the case of Navalny, Putin's main opponent gets hit - if Putin didn't order it, it damages his credibility, I repeat: Whose head is rolling?

I didn't mention it earlier, but Russia no longer has a death penalty officially - this is why Skripal was alive to be swapped. Oleg Gordievsky was sentenced to death in absentia and I believe the order still stands (although hopefully unenforceable)

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