Ask HN: How do you know if the startup you are working at will succeed?

Investors are a pretty big signal for this. For example startups that raised money from YC is pretty much guaranteed to be successful.

I was at a startup that failed, I was actually the last non-founder to leave. Not because I didn't see the problems, but because I was the last one of us to find a new job. Everyone began looking for a new opportunity around 6-12 months before our runway actually ran out.

Here were some of the issues:

Over time, the information flow from our founders degraded in quality and quantity. When you're at a company of 5-10 people, everyone should know everything.

When engineers left they weren't replaced. Tech transfer was just a formality, and projects were shelved entirely. If a startup isn't growing, it's dying.

The founders attempted the same monetization strategy for about 2 years with zero success. Not as in "unsustainable" but literally, not a dime!

So TL;DR: if your company is shrinking, non-founders kept in the dark, and nothing seems to be changing in strategy when no one is paying you, the company is probably going to die and you should move on. However, staying around until the end of your runway will lead to a glowing reference for future job searches.

I worked for failed startup, and now I work for successful startup.

How do I know the one I work for now is successful? Founders are transparent about burn rate and available funds and also they do not hesitate to share information about revenue. This does not sound like much but from my experience is already a good sign.

Maybe some users here will find it difficult to believe but previous startup I worked for (the one that failed) was not transparent at all. We would hear stories of potential big.co customer that will bring millions and then... we would hear about another potential big.co customer that would bring millions... And every month or two we would hear the same story. And then one day we was informed that the company can no longer keep us so we are released with immediate effect.

Revenue is (usually) a sign that people want the product you build. And if people want it hard enough to put their money into it then you know you solve a real problem and that there is actually market for it.

This question is a non-starter. Of course nobody knows. Even if the startup is an astronomic amount of funding and strong growth it could still fail. One man's definition of success also drastically varies from another's.

Enjoy your life, put some money in the bank.

If you're lucky, your hard work and intellect will reward you one day. Granted, only hard work get's you a seat at the table, connections might improve the cards you're dealt.

I've worked on a couple of SaaS startups and it was important that MRR was growing every month and there was low churn / cancellations.

I always assume it will fail. I ask what I can learn/gain even if it fails.

There are often key assumptions the financial statements are based upon. Without clarity, you would never know.