It's not like anyone will listen anyway, but it's a nice thought...
Jokes aside, I'm afraid this is truly the administration and leadership that will take down the US for good. We somehow made it through Bush Jr and Clinton but by golly, this administration cannot do anything constructive.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...
The Bay Area was flat, but it just spiked yesterday and reopening is now paused.
The press is saying one thing, but the official stats say flat - month after month.
I guess newspapers value outrage over public service.
You would need a magnifying glass to see anything significant. Only 72 hospitalized patients today (2,278 more available), historical average is a little less.
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
Shame on HN for letting non-technical people dictate public policy with a false narrative. If anybody told me that a technical group the size of HN in 2019 was this oblivious, I would have been skeptical. But here we are - the center of SV refuses to actually read a graph, month after month.
Can somebody explain that to me? Is everybody else incapacitated with fear, virtue signalling, mass hysteria, or what is behind that?
Dr. VDH, who noticed the above in parallel with me, said something like, "[We're captive to 1%'ers who have a nice life and feel it's unfair they could lose that.]"
Is that it? Destroy our economy for individual selfishness?
Do I need to make a video on how to read the graphs?
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-25/newsom-c...
For the love of God. Texas didn't have an outbreak when they shutdown! Nor did Oregon, or California. That is the difference. All of Europe shut down _after the virus had already grown exponentially_ in most places. We shut down Oregon when there were fewer than 100 cases. After three months of being shut down in Oregon the curve had nowhere to go but up!
What in the hell did people expect? We shut down before there is spread, wait three months and then reopen. How is that a plan? Did anyone really expect that places where shutdowns were early and strong would somehow come out unscathed?
It has been true since day 1. You either need to shut down HARD until there is a vaccine (not possible, not sustainable, more deaths caused by this) or you deal with the surge of cases and do your best to protect the elderly/vulnerable.
What you don't do is panic, shut down too early, burn through all your money and political capital, reopen and then be all "golly gee there are cases now!". If we had waited until there was growth in cases, we could shutdown and actually flatten the curve enough to handle the shock to the system.
It is so. damn. frustrating. that this isn't more obvious to people. What materially changed between today and March 1?
Lockdowns where a bad idea from there start as there is no way to continue them until there is a vaccine.
I am very curious to see if NY and the other early hot spots avoid a resurgence like Europe has. That is what I am most interested now. If they do, perhaps the folks who are talking about cross-reactive immunity are on to something.
So I think it's more of a tragic flaw of human nature than a particularly unlucky failure of timing.
The other issue with human nature is that people need feedback, so when you have 2-4 weeks of delay in the loop, things get out of control. You have weeks of believing falsehoods before reality starts to kick in.
Nationally that may be a contributing factor, but in hotspot states, the % of tests which are positive has actually gone up significantly: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states and select Florida or Arizona
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-...
You can also correct for the sampling rate bias by looking at the number of cases per 100,000 tests (or similar). Does anyone have a link tracking that? EDIT: percentage positive tests: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
https://www.popsci.com/story/health/black-lives-matter-prote...
Multiple angles are hard.
