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0 pointsWildParser6y ago0 comments

Feel free to take a look at the official data yourself.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod...

You need nothing but Excel/LibreOffice and a few simple formulas to get this picture.

Germany has a heavy 7 day rhythm, because they're doing their reporting in a very strange way. Using 7 day averages helps a lot to get rid of the reporting-noise.

You need: Daily death (averages over 7 days) Total death (Sum) (averages over 7 days)

daily/total

Just use SUM() and /

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3 comments · 1 top-level

acqq6y ago· 2 in thread

I don't doubt that one can produce the picture. The problem is that these drawn lines over the real data don't mean anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test

WildParserOP6y ago

R² > 0,995

If you subtract the trend of the first outbreak from the main trend it's R²>0,995 from the beginning down the point where old people started to wear masks and go to church. Here things get worse - as expected.

New trend is still collapsing exponentially - numbers now are so low that the curve has reporting issues (national deathcount on Sunday was -1).

acqq5y ago

The Saturday and Sunday are the "weird" death data in most of the countries, and not because people die less on these days, but because not all those that report the deaths do that on these days: even in hospitals in the middle of epidemics some people in administration simply don't work on weekends.

So what I see for Germany is the number of detected cases increased the last week, therefore I expect in 2-4 weeks the increase of deaths in Germany, that's how much the delay is between more cases and more deaths.

I don't see anything else that is a realistic "signal" about anything.

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