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0 pointskortilla5y ago0 comments

Or, you know, just use nuclear.

0 comments

I mentioned nuclear. It is secondary to the conversion from coal to gas though in terms of near-term realized benefit.

Nuclear requires a lot of dereg and testing that will be decades out if we start today. This assumes the barriers of popular rejection can be overcome. China might pull it off, but I don't see the US radiating enthusiasm for it. But yeah, since few places on earth can take advantage of hydro, I don't see any long-term alternative to nuclear.

ClumsyPilot5y ago

It does not require dereg, it requires investment. Just lile renewables do.

aksss5y ago

Many developed nations are reducing nuclear energy dependency as a matter of policy and preventing new reactors as a matter of regulation so dereg is a barrier that needs to be addressed for nuclear to become an alternative source in the highest carbon-impacting nations.

The key parameters in a nuclear build are:

1) the construction time (impacted by regulatory regimes)

2) the cost of capital (interest rate of tying up money)

3) an uncertainty factor about getting shut down (impacted by regulatory regimes)

In China, 1&2 are 3-4 years and 2% respectively. In the US they are 8-9 years, 15% and maybe 50% chance you'll be shut down before you can finish. [0]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1EB1zsxW0k&t=1154

iso16315y ago

The UK is building a new nuclear plant and new offshore wind.

The nuclear plant has a strike price twice as high as the offshore wind.

ClumsyPilot5y ago

And the nuclear plant will produce at 100% of its capacity in any weather. Meanwhile wind will jave average capacity of like 30%

arpa5y ago

It just isn't as hot right now as "renewables". What's needed is a good marketing campaign, people will follow, and so will imvestments. Downsides will be gleefully ignored, just like with solar.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

aksss5y ago

I mentioned nuclear. It is secondary to the conversion from coal to gas though in terms of near-term realized benefit.

ClumsyPilot5y ago

It does not require dereg, it requires investment. Just lile renewables do.

aksss5y ago

The key parameters in a nuclear build are:

1) the construction time (impacted by regulatory regimes)

2) the cost of capital (interest rate of tying up money)

3) an uncertainty factor about getting shut down (impacted by regulatory regimes)

In China, 1&2 are 3-4 years and 2% respectively. In the US they are 8-9 years, 15% and maybe 50% chance you'll be shut down before you can finish. [0]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1EB1zsxW0k&t=1154

iso16315y ago

The UK is building a new nuclear plant and new offshore wind.

The nuclear plant has a strike price twice as high as the offshore wind.

ClumsyPilot5y ago

And the nuclear plant will produce at 100% of its capacity in any weather. Meanwhile wind will jave average capacity of like 30%

arpa5y ago

It just isn't as hot right now as "renewables". What's needed is a good marketing campaign, people will follow, and so will imvestments. Downsides will be gleefully ignored, just like with solar.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse