I think this is generally a good answer, but keep in mind I said AGI "in text". My forecasting is that within 3 years you will be able to give arbitrary text commands and get the textual output of the equivalents of "clean my house, take care of my kids, ..." like problems.
I also would contend that there is reasoning happening and that zero-shot demonstrates this. Specifically, reasoning about the intent of the prompt. The fact that you get this simply by building a general-purpose text model is a surprise to me.
Something I haven't seen yet is a model simulate the mind of the questioner, the way humans do, over time (minutes, days, years).
In 3 years, I'll ping you :) Already made a calendar reminder