But halvening happens on a fixed schedule, so all future halvenings are already priced in the value of Bitcoin in national currency. So if you get half the bitcoins for mining, ceteris paribus you are getting half the dollars.
I agree if you assume all future halvenings are priced in. It has been claimed that there is a relationship between halvenings in the past and in increases in the price of Bitcoin. If true this would suggest that at least in the past halvenings are not priced in.
