There's also going to be a lot of pent-up demand from people who didn't lose jobs and had no outlet for leisure spending during the quarantine. I'm not sure which will win out.
It doesn't even have to be global, just a regional second wave in a tourist hot spot could crush tourism globally.
[0] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recover...
I beg to differ:
"Through the success of the global eradication campaign, smallpox was finally pushed back to the horn of Africa and then to a single last natural case, which occurred in Somalia in 1977. A fatal laboratory-acquired case occurred in the United Kingdom in 1978. The global eradication of smallpox was certified, based on intense verification activities in countries, by a commission of eminent scientists in December 1979 and subsequently endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 1980." (from https://web.archive.org/web/20070921235036/http://www.who.in... )
The Wikipedia page starts with "Smallpox was an infectious disease". I believe this is one of the most powerful sentences I've ever read on the Internet, and it gives me so much hope for what we can achieve.
Just because you still have a job in May doesn't mean you'll still have one in August.
But I think that if the leisure travel collapses it would be because of the economic declines, not medical risks. My 2c.
