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0 pointsxscott6y ago0 comments

Not sure if you're still checking back, but at day 15 the US deaths are at 16k where his prediction says 25k.

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DanBC6y ago· 2 in thread

That's good.

The cumulative deaths are now doubling at a slower rate (something like 5.5 days?), partly because stronger social distancing measures have been put in place.

But also, let's see what the CDC says next week, because those figures are laggier but more accurate.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

xscottOP6y ago

And how long do you predict a 5.5 day doubling period to continue?

DanBC6y ago

For clarity, I'm not predicting.

15 days ago was just after New York and California implemented shelter-in-place orders, so we'd expect to see levelling in the numbers of daily new infections starting about two weeks after (now), with levelling in daily new deaths about 10 days after that (about 20th April).

Here's what other people are predicting - a peak on April 12th with over 2000 deaths in one day, and total cumulative deaths just over 23000 . https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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