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0 pointsyters5y ago0 comments

Yes, if you google "coronavirus iceland" you'll see they've tested almost their entire population. They found 1586 confirmed cases, of whom only 6 died, which gives a fatality rate of 0.4%.

Turning this around, if we multiply confirmed deaths by 264, that gives us an estimate of how many cases there are. So, for example, with UK's death count of 6159 this means about 2.4% of the population is infected. Furthermore, on the Diamond Princess only 20% of the people onboard caught the virus under poorly quarantined conditions. So, to extrapolate even further, this would imply that over 12% of the UK population has already been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. This means that the UK should peak at about 50k deaths, without any protective measures.

In 2018, the UK had 50k deaths due to flu in excess of normal flu deaths.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/30/winter-deaths-hi...

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JamisonM5y ago

Iceland has only tested 28,992 of its residents as April 6th, so that throws the rest of this conjecture out the window. (Although regardless the conjecture was probably not a great idea.)

https://covid.is/data

ytersOP5y ago

The point is Iceland has the best statistic on death rate due to comprehensive testing.

JamisonM5y ago

I think the real point is that your original claim was a small sample that you were extrapolating wildly from turns out to be 10x smaller than you claimed.

Furthermore you are focusing on a tiny portion of available data instead of all that is available.

Given that New York State has 4,000+ deaths your "model" would indicate that 1MM residents have COVID-19? So if it rips through the remaining 19MM residents in the course of a few weeks the result will only be 80k deaths? And of course the healthcare system won't break down?

Also you said that the Diamond Princess only had a 20% infection rate but the Greg Mortimer is reporting a 60% infection rate. Seems like you've got a lot of facts wrong on the first pass, IDK.

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standardUser5y ago

Iceland may have the best statistic on their death rate from this virus, but these things are not static and depend on a zillion factors (slight exaggeration).

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phaemon5y ago

From your own link: "The failings contributed to the worst flu season for seven years, with 15,000 deaths from the virus, around twice the average figure, and the worst NHS performance on record."

Not 50,000.

ytersOP5y ago

Sorry, I misread. This doc says (look at last couple pages) the 2014/2015 and 2017/2018 seasons had over 25k deaths from flu.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

So my calculation shows cov2 is about twice as bad as a strong flu, with no preventative measures. If we hit the 20k or less with preventative measures that the Imperial model predicts, this will be on par with regular flu season.

At any rate, much less than the 200k+ deaths originally predicted by the Imperial model and that pushed the UK to lockdown.

JamesBarney5y ago

Bergamo had an 0.4% of it's population die in excess of usual in March and no one believes that 100% of the population was infected. Which would put the UK at 240,000.

JamisonM5y ago

Something to consider: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/12501803096032870...

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0 pointsyters5y ago0 comments

Yes, if you google "coronavirus iceland" you'll see they've tested almost their entire population. They found 1586 confirmed cases, of whom only 6 died, which gives a fatality rate of 0.4%.

In 2018, the UK had 50k deaths due to flu in excess of normal flu deaths.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/30/winter-deaths-hi...

0 comments

JamisonM5y ago

Iceland has only tested 28,992 of its residents as April 6th, so that throws the rest of this conjecture out the window. (Although regardless the conjecture was probably not a great idea.)

https://covid.is/data

ytersOP5y ago

The point is Iceland has the best statistic on death rate due to comprehensive testing.

JamisonM5y ago

I think the real point is that your original claim was a small sample that you were extrapolating wildly from turns out to be 10x smaller than you claimed.

Furthermore you are focusing on a tiny portion of available data instead of all that is available.

Also you said that the Diamond Princess only had a 20% infection rate but the Greg Mortimer is reporting a 60% infection rate. Seems like you've got a lot of facts wrong on the first pass, IDK.

1 more reply

standardUser5y ago

Iceland may have the best statistic on their death rate from this virus, but these things are not static and depend on a zillion factors (slight exaggeration).

1 more reply

phaemon5y ago

From your own link: "The failings contributed to the worst flu season for seven years, with 15,000 deaths from the virus, around twice the average figure, and the worst NHS performance on record."

Not 50,000.

ytersOP5y ago

Sorry, I misread. This doc says (look at last couple pages) the 2014/2015 and 2017/2018 seasons had over 25k deaths from flu.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

At any rate, much less than the 200k+ deaths originally predicted by the Imperial model and that pushed the UK to lockdown.

JamesBarney5y ago

Bergamo had an 0.4% of it's population die in excess of usual in March and no one believes that 100% of the population was infected. Which would put the UK at 240,000.

JamisonM5y ago

Something to consider: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/12501803096032870...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse