In China, companies responded to this shift in demand by having the online-retail/logistics companies (demand way up, not enough workers) contract with the physical-retail companies (demand way down, too many workers) for their workers' time. You'd still be a Macy's employee, but you'd be doing Amazon's work, and Amazon would send Macy's a big pile of cash.
Somehow that seems better for all involved than the way we appear to be going.
Hopefully in the long run we can all find a place for in person retail. I buy a lot online but still like going to stores sometimes too. We will likely see the industry re-invent instead a bit with smaller footprints and a focus on things that sell better in person than online.
- The demise of many traditional retail businesses
- The concentration of surviving retail businesses into big box stores and higher-end retailers (like the stores at Westfield malls)
- Increased usage of online shopping and gig delivery services
- Even more growth for Amazon, Walmart, and Target
I would expect, in general, to see more concentration in most industries after the virus shutdowns end. Retail is the most obvious example.
$/ft^2 is the metric to look for. That correlates with "high end" retail (high dollar items that take up less floor/warehouse space).
I think we could see a boon of brick and mortars that are smaller and more optimized. Just an anecdote, I know of a local music shop that cut its floorspace in half about 5 years ago and started offering staple items as a subscription service (e.g. reeds, guitar strings, bow rosin, whatever), while the bigger items had their shelf space rented out to vendors rather than taking commission on sales. Another anecdote, StitchFix and Bonobos have both provided solutions to the problem of selling clothes without stocking various sizes at a retail location.
There's a lot of opportunity to innovate retail in my opinion. The issue has always been the sales model, and I think that focusing on "big box" stores is wrong - they're just more equipped to weather the storm. Department stores died a decade ago, it just took this long for their bodies to hit the ground. Same for big box retail.
Why Walmart and Target? Aren't they also traditional retail?
How does this work in Denmark? I read they were the gold standard for how a nation should do health care, but I also read they don't do insurance solely as a public option through the government.
I think that the health industry itself is a scam, and over priced by bureaucracy but that doesnt mean that another person should take your burden. Your health is your responsibility not your employers.
Employers shouldn't be playing health insurance because that shouldn't be necessary. Minimum wage should cover basic care. Either minimum wage is too low or basic care is too high. We kinda take care of this through taxes but its a bandaid on a corrupt overpriced monopoly industry.
Maybe it made sense in the world of easy access to middle class jobs that was the 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's, etc. But today things are significantly different and we haven't adapted to reflect that reality.
This may end up being the most important silver lining of the COVID19 situation.
> Maybe it made sense in the world of easy access to middle class jobs that was the 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's, etc.
It made sense for those who could get those jobs, but US society of the 1950s-1970s was pretty selective as to to whom it availed such jobs and attached health benefits.
That doesn't change the fact that heath insurance and healthcare is expensive, it's just pointing out that the only way most people can afford to have it is because their employer is paying for most of it. If that cost was more transparent to salaried people, it might spur a more useful conversation about how to bring down the cost of healthcare.
When the letters go out, people open their eyes when they see the institution spent 1/3 of their salary on health insurance. You can tell when someone is on the benefits committee, because they don't complain about salaries for about 3 years.
It was extremely easy to sign up on the healthcare exchange. The coverage wasn't great, but it was free and better than nothing.
FTA: At least through May
That means people who quit or are laid off will end up having to pay more for their healthcare at a time when they don't have any income.
COBRA also has a lot of hidden "gotchas", like for example if the employer you left stops maintaining any health plan, your COBRA plan can also be terminated. (This means if the company shuts down, all past employees lose any ability to use COBRA. And this can happen even after you leave and are already on COBRA)
Also if you fail to pay the premiums for any reason, your plan can be terminated, and even worse you won't be allowed to sign up for a new plan via the Marketplace until the open enrollment period.
Any analysis / estimate / policy that starts from any assumption of the existence or usage of COBRA is therefore so unrealistic and inaccurate as to be completely ignored.
On the other hand, being furloughed rather than laid off will mean the workers keep their health insurance.
The only difference in my (generally worker-unfriendly red) state is that if you're furloughed and apply for unemployment, they waive the requirement to demonstrate that you're looking for work.
It totally depends on how long the furlough is. A short furlough means you still have a job to go back to, and you don't have to repeat the whole job search/interviewing process.
Also check out all the WARN notices from businesses in NY posted in the last week [2]. COVID-19 is largest (within the USA) in NY. As a result many businesses are closing / furloughing / laying off people.
