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0 pointsbitreality5y ago0 comments

Government and industry will want demand to ramp back up, but it's doubtful that will be supported by consumers. I don't think you're going to see an instant rush back to international travel.

Same goes for most other industries. This isn't a situation where you just wake up one day and it's over. It's not a war where you just make up and get back to work. This virus is out there, and most experts say even if you were already infected, you will only become temporarily immune (similar to flu).

So until you see a vaccine develop, coronavirus is not going away by any stretch. It will continue to cause problems in the medium term.

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Robotbeat5y ago

Citation for “most experts.” Most actual virus experts I’ve seen say the opposite: the virus is mutating slowly (at least in the spike protein, which is the part the immune system responds to) and the “reinfection” measurements are likely measuring residual virus genetic material, not necessarily true reinfection.

@trvrb on Twitter. And this other guy, with this thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1244029896...

(Which doesn’t mean I disagree with your overall point that this won’t be an instant-bounceback.)

bitrealityOP5y ago

I'm not suggesting that people will become quickly reinfected, I'm saying that their immunity will be temporary, such as one or several "infection seasons".

johnchristopher5y ago

I work in the travel industry (in a weird IT/social media guy position) and the consensus seems to be that people will get back to traveling but in their own country.

“Public” tourism industry is going to be okay (and aren't too worry about it for better or worse) but OTA and traditional tour operators are bleeding and some will eventually die.

Small local actors too but they will be replaced (or back after a year of unemployment, with loans from bailout banks).

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