A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.
337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.
14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.
So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
And no one knows why.
But this is not in disagreement with my comment, since this would involve slowing down.
The Spanish Flu was worst the next winter...
Also, I said "or".
Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet
Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco that’s gonna engulf that region soon.
I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.
Some research papers from the past about SARS-CoronaVirus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351
I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and people won't really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts.
Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It's only "summer" for roughly half the planet, right?
