I think the simplicity really makes this work. just about anyone who can use a calculator can operate this calculator -- but that doesn't make it any less powerful. Humans are notoriously bad at intuitively dealing with uncertainty, and this calculator might very well help get a feel for it.
The only thing I'd like to see improved is the histogram, the old timey console-like graphing is cute, but not exactly easy to read or interpret. Going for a modern graphical graph and marking it with some useful percentiles would go a long way towards making it more usable.
EDIT: also -- only half facetiously -- is there a CLI/desktop/mobile app yet? Doing quick back-of-a-napkin math on your phone is a pretty useful thing.
EDIT2: Is the source available somewhere? I'm having the hardest time finding the github repo related to this page...
I already have a CLI tool and a library, but I'd like to make it a bit less hairy before releasing. I also want to build an iOS / Android app. But I wanted to release a web app first because that has by far the lowest barrier to entry.
UPDATE
Found this:
"Range is always a normal distribution, with the lower number being two standard deviations below the mean, and the upper number two standard deviations above. Nothing fancier is possible, in terms of input probability distributions."
So the range is two std dev from the mean. He also mentions somewhere early that he's assuming the input range is 95% confident.
If I am understanding this correctly, I have a second question: if he has the mean, and the std dev, what is the purpose of the monte carlo simulation exactly? Can't you just subdivide your range, and compute frequency using the gaussian function?
Input: 100 / 0~0
UI: Please wait...
Console: worker.dart.js:348 Uncaught Invalid argument(s): Cannot make stats from empty list of values
Nicely done!
