undefined | Better HN

0 pointsjoe_the_user6y ago0 comments

South Korea and China itself are the best models for countries that have (sort of) bounced back. And they leveraged a variety of mass mobilizations the US hasn't started with. So basically we're in for a LOT of pain in dealing this.

Exogenous shocks usually don't provoke recessions but is going to be like a planet-wide tidal wave. Things are going to be very different at the end. Huge, efficient enterprises may well end up even stronger but would the market for a given medium sized enterprise even make sense? We don't know.

0 comments

3 comments · 1 top-level

dnautics6y ago· 2 in thread

The assumption is that mass mobilization is 1) effective and 2) necessary. We simply don't have enough data to know one way or another. Not saying self-isolating isn't prudent, but you can't really make reliable long term economic forecasts assuming any particular disease profile.

Full disclosure: I've been short term short the market for the last three weeks.

aguyfromnb6y ago

>Full disclosure: I've been short term short the market for the last three weeks

You hit the exact peak of the market before deciding to short? Wow. Can you share with us your prognostications on just how "short-term" you expect this to be, or will you update us with hindsight on that, too?

"I've been short the market" after a 30% draw-down is the new version of all prisoners claiming they're innocent. It's never "I started to get defensive 6 months ago" or "I went to half cash expecting a crash near-term". Top tick and went short. Every forum, every time.

This is where /r/wallstreetbets has it right: if you aren't going to post your trade in advance or verify it, don't talk about it.

alasdair_6y ago

Or, in my case, I was short (and on margin!) Boeing just before the market crashed.

I just don't tell people that I chickened out and covered on the first rally...

(or that I then put it all into GLD...)

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse