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0 pointstathougies6y ago0 comments

Housing is unlikely to follow unless more old people die of covid than expected. Rates are so low and big money will be looking to diversify into alternate asset classes.

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4 comments · 1 top-level

selectodude6y ago· 3 in thread

A million dead, mostly elderly, is not completely out of the realm of possibility, especially if we hit the high end of 150 million infections in the US. Statistically, 150 million infections would kill closer to 4 million.

btilly6y ago

You really think that 50% of the population is the high end???

Per https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... it seems that the basic reproduction number is over 2. Which means that herd immunity only sets in if under 1/3 of the population is vulnerable. Which means over 200 million Americans get it.

The alternatives are permanent lifestyle changes, or a successful eradication of the disease worldwide.

rnd336y ago

The number of confirmed cases in South Korea is flattening out at around 8,200 people out of a population of 52 million (0,016 %), China is flattening out at 81,000 cases (0,006 % of the whole population). Is it really reasonable to assume the number of infected people in the the US will be 3,000 to 8,000 times higher?? If these are the calculations Wall Street are doing then I'm not surprised the stock market is falling...

tathougiesOP6y ago

The stock market is falling because (a) individuals and businesses are liquidating positions to have cash on hand and (b) people are worried that, without a liquidity package from the government, major businesses are in danger of being liquidated.

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