undefined | Better HN

Skip to content

Top Best Ask Show New Jobs

0 pointspinot6y ago0 comments

China nipped this before they spent much time in the exponential phase:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#g8

US is tracking highly with Italy, but 12 days behind.

0 comments

6 comments · 1 top-level

briandear6y ago· 5 in thread

How is the US 12 days behind? Where does that number come from? The first Italian case was a month after the first US case.

foota6y ago

Iirc the first us case was isolated, what really matters is the first community spread. The 12 days comes from lining up the curves. Our current # of cases is where Italy was 12 days ago.

naiveprogrammer6y ago

Seems like cherry-picking to me.

Italy has an older population to start with. I don't think the US will remotely reach the chaos we are seeing in Italy.

https://i.redd.it/apxxmlc4kfm41.jpg

cooljacob2046y ago

Population of Italy is 60m and the US is 327m.

Land size if Italy is 116,347 mi², land size of US is 3.797 million mi²

I don't think it's fair to make any assumptions from those infection numbers when the two countries are vastly different.

Interesting, but to truly track similar to Italy wouldn't we need higher numbers being we're a much larger populous? Just curious.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse