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0 pointsfauigerzigerk6y ago0 comments

>Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China?

Yes, but the reason why the Diamond Princess is interesting is that we know exactly how many of them got infected. We don't know that about any other population.

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gdubs6y ago

The diamond princess is... interesting, yes, but an unmitigated disaster is how most experts have defined it. It’s unclear we can extract meaningful info applicable to the rest of the world based on the cruise ship.

Also consider my point that many, many of these cases are unresolved. Whereas the China study, which most health experts are relying on currently as our best guess - not the cruise ship — looks at resolved cases.

fauigerzigerkOP6y ago

I said myself that I didn't believe the cruise ship numbers were representative, but the 20% figure you cite isn't a realistic hospitalisation rate either as it only includes diagnosed cases.

The number of undiagnosed cases is the great unknown that experts disagree on. It's also the basis for all the wild speculation out there.

Under normal circumstances I would say let's test a random sample of the population in some affected area. But as test kits are scarce doing that would probably be ill advised.

gdubs6y ago

The same is true for the flu. People get it every year but they don’t go and get swabbed.

I also agree that there’s a wide range of possibility. But I’m responding to the claim there’s no data with a study from China’s CDC that most experts are citing as the best info we have right now. Is it perfect? No. But the Diamond Princess isn’t a scientific study — it’s a mess.

Edit: for a range of possible outcomes, this article is helpful:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronaviru...

At the low end are South Korea’s (mortality) numbers, at the extreme high Iran, and Italy aligning roughly with China’s study.

The tl;dr is we have a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, but Italy is lining up with China’s findings.

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gdubs6y ago

fauigerzigerkOP6y ago

I said myself that I didn't believe the cruise ship numbers were representative, but the 20% figure you cite isn't a realistic hospitalisation rate either as it only includes diagnosed cases.

The number of undiagnosed cases is the great unknown that experts disagree on. It's also the basis for all the wild speculation out there.

Under normal circumstances I would say let's test a random sample of the population in some affected area. But as test kits are scarce doing that would probably be ill advised.

gdubs6y ago

The same is true for the flu. People get it every year but they don’t go and get swabbed.

Edit: for a range of possible outcomes, this article is helpful:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronaviru...

At the low end are South Korea’s (mortality) numbers, at the extreme high Iran, and Italy aligning roughly with China’s study.

The tl;dr is we have a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, but Italy is lining up with China’s findings.

2 more replies

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse