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0 pointsborism15y ago0 comments

I'm glad you didn't fall into the short selling trap.

It's not about predictability, it's about timing!

Pretty much everyone except Wall Street and Washington knew by the middle of 2008 that bubble is about to burst. Of course very few if anyone predicted when exactly and to what extent it was going to happen. I got burned by mistiming my short and underestimating how devastating the crash will be.

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MichaelApproved15y ago· 1 in thread

I love this one too "pretty much everyone knew"

Think about what you're actually saying here. If pretty much everyone knew then 401k account holders would've hedged their bets or moved into safer places. Instead they took a bath with the rest of the economy.

Your 20/20 hindsight vision is amazing. I can't wait for you to tell me who will win the 2008 superbowl.

borismOP15y ago

knowing something doesn't mean it's immediately actable upon.

I stand by my claim that pretty much everyone knew by the end of summer of 2008 that bubble was deflating.

Hedging can turn on yourself. Southwest was very successful at hedging rising oil prices until they weren't rising anymore, then their hedges almost bankrupted them.

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