> It takes people time to die. ...We've even been through this stage in Hubei, it started low if you just superficially look at figures.
Right, that's why I used Guangdong as an example, and not (say) Korea or Japan, and compared cases 2 weeks ago vs deaths now. How long a lag time do you think is better?
Hard to say. 4 weeks at least I think. 4 weeks to start to snuff it. But it will be longer for many people. It's a good question, that's in part what the OP is trying to work out.
Look at the (ongoing) deaths on the Diamond Princess
