It's effectively an epidemiological transmissibility or chain-reaction question.
If a given debris item strikes, on average, <1 other objects before deorbiting, then the Kessler cloud will (eventually) disperse, absent new objects being inserted.
If a given debris item strikes, on average, 1 other object, the Kessler cloud is self-sustaining (or at least until particle size drops to some minimum).
And if a given debris item strikes, on average >1 other objects, the cloud grows and the collision rate increases with time, again until the material is sufficiently dispersed and/or eventually deorbits.
Launching new satellites sustains this equation.
Accidental or intentional debris-field creation of course greatly exacerbates it.
(What the theshold is for >1 collisions I have no idea, I suspect there's research on this.)