Yeah, 2^48 is huge, but that gets you a collision probability of ~40%.

You'd want a probability more like 1-in-a-million (or 1-in-a-billion). That's 2^39 (or 2^34), which is 1000 messages a second for 17 years (or 7 months).

Again, probably still safe for many use cases. But you do have to think about it for a second. XChaCha20's 192-bit nonce capacity lets you totally ignore that factor, which is a nice property for generic crypto recommendations.