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0 pointssimias6y ago0 comments

I think self-driving cars are like fusion reactors, they're perfectly possible on paper and, like, totally 15years away from now.

I'm sure it'll be possible some day, but I'm not positive that it'll be possible in the general case before we reach the Singularity. And when we get there self-driving cars are going to be a small side-effect of this unprecedented revolution.

I can't help to draw a parallel between these threads about self-driving cars where many people are saying that it's basically a done deal and we just need to wait a few years, and that thread I read a few hours ago about the Boing 737 Max re-certification being delayed once more. I know it's a bit of a fallacy to treat HN has a singular entity but when I read the threads about the 737 the consensus in here is that "it's a death trap and I'll never fly one of these planes ever again" but at the same time we're totally optimistic that the industry will have perfected self-driving technology in our lifetimes? The industry has been cutting corners on planes that cost a fortune and didn't manage to make them safe to operate in unobstructed airspace because of a minor sensor dysfunction but they're totally gonna nail the incredibly complex task of operating a 1+ton vehicle at highway speeds in much less controlled environment?

I can totally see an ever-increasing amount of driver assistance in the future. But fully autonomous driving everywhere at all times? I'm really not so sure.

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joe_the_user6y ago

I think self-driving cars are like fusion reactors, they're perfectly possible on paper and, like, totally 15years away from now.

There's a certain similarity but I don't know any paper that actually gives any assure that self-driving is going to ever be possible. The only theory is "we will prevent extraneous factors and then calculate".

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diffeomorphism6y ago

Fusion research could have been finished in the 90s if we didn't drastically cut funding to keep it "15 years away" forever:

https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png

I don't think self-driving cars have this problem.

rorykoehler6y ago

The difference is SDC taxis are already in operation in the wild. Maybe it's only in a small part of Phoenix but its happening right now. Full SDCs in all developed high density urban areas will probably be a thing in this decade and the next decade for sure.

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