All ciphers older than 100 years have been broken, except for one.
However, it seems to me that designs improved exponentially, while attacks only improved quadratically. The old days of WWII where Enigma was broken before the end of the war will never happen again.
Conceptually, it makes sense: Science improves quadratically because breakthroughs improve tooling that accelerate breakthroughs. I am simplifying here, but if you have N tools at T1 that make you progress at rate R1=N×K, and that progress yields another tool: at T2 you have N+1 tools, making you progress at rate R2=R1+K. Your progress is P2=P1+R1, which generalizes to Pn+1 = Pn+n×K = P0+K×N×(N-1)÷2, a quadratic progression.
On the other hand, cryptographic security is exponentially better with every bit. If an old cipher uses its bits badly, it will still be good enough if it is long enough. Let's say it reaches a given difficulty level after 10 rounds; a cipher that uses its bits twice as well will reach the same level after 5 rounds, but would have something like 2^K times that level after 6, 2^2K times after 7, … 2^5K times after 10, reaching a level that quadratic improvements won't reach for an increasingly long time.
For instance, it took 5 years for MD4 (1990) to have a practical collision, 12 for MD5 (1992), 22 for SHA1 (1995), therefore roughly doubling every three years. If we extrapolate, SHA2 will have a practical collision in 2080.
