> That capital structure is more like an airline than Google. Not something Wall St rewards.

This is the part we are disconnected on. It is the hardest part to guess about.

If the accounting works out like an airline, I agree with you that costs will remain high and will not change transportation significantly.

However, unlike an airline, the variable cost per ride is low. The way I see it, the economics will work out more like a data center (relative to an airline). Which is something Wall St does reward.

If you believe Elon Musk the Model 3 currently sold for $50-60k USD will be worth $100k USD as a robotaxi. For us in 2019 it really is hard to imagine the worth of a car that is used 99% of the time rather than parked 95% of the time.

When robotaxis have been real for a decade, car manufacturers will build and run robotaxi fleets.

Unlike today, vertical integration of manufacturing, maintenance, recycling and operating the fleet of cars creates a lot of consistent demand and can bring significant economic advantages even more than Musk’s current estimate.

Even the car manufacturers goals change. Rather than optimizing to sell cars (have them degrade and sell more), cars will be optimized for durability, maximum materials reuse, lowest variable cost per ride, ergonomic rides.