…assuming demand for cars is flat 12-16 hours per day, and that you could somehow, make all their operating hours useful operating hours. For example, society would have to change for commuter cars to end up in places where they immediately can be used productively.

”Why would Tesla sell a car to you for $10k profit if they can make $70k profit?”

Because, if they don’t, somebody else (e.g, a Chinese car manufacturer) will sell me a car for that $10k profit, and Tesla will make zilch.

If cars become that much cheaper, and wouldn’t need a driver’s license to use them, I don’t see why, by necessity, fewer people would own cars.

Your scenario assumes some manufacturer will gain a near-perfect monopoly. That might happen, but it’s not a given.

Also, I don’t think it is a given that the government wouldn’t break up such a monopoly.

Because there is a niche that is profitable and if Tesla doesn't fill it, someone else will? After all, Tesla has had no motivational difficulties trying to fill that niche right now, so someone will be willing.

I also question the 70K profit part. Assuming robotaxis actually become a thing, why do you think the cars will make much profit at all? There will be a race to the bottom. I know a lot of Model 3 owners trying to justify their FSD purchase by suggesting they will eventually make back all of that money and more, but I can't figure out why they think this time they will be immune to market dynamics.

It's already possible: a monthly transit pass is often in the $100-150 range. The fact that people have been choosing to forego viable transit options in favor of a much more expensive personal vehicle option for a long time is strongly suggestive of the fact that people really don't want to give up their cars.

First of all, thank you for an interesting article! Looking at it quickly though, if I make some rough extrapolations from their data, it seems like most Teslas will have lost about 40% of their battery life by 500,000 miles. So I really think it's disingenuous to say that a Tesla can drive that long, when its range starts to make it significantly less useful, when replacing the batteries would cost more than buying a cheap car. Basically I think you are just exaggerating the benefit of longevity for electric cars.

That said though, the Tesla batteries are holding up better than I thought and I agree with you electric cars are better for higher mileage applications!

Others have already covered how any potentially profitable niche will be covered.

My car costs 1.800 € ( I'm not the first owner of that Mercedes), I barely use it as I live in a big city.

I'm not paying 200€/month ;)

:-)

That amount of time spent with a scooter service would cost $400-$800 a month. A robotaxi service could be more expensive than you think.