It depends on the definition of edit distance used; they both have a unweighted Levenshtein distance of 1 from “==” (# of inserts, deletions, or substitions), but “:=” has an LCS distance of 2 vs “=” with 1.
Perhaps more importantly, “=” and “==” are more visually similar than “==” and “:=” and also easier to mistakenly type for each other.