If it was what "any reasonable analyst would have told them would happen," why isn't it reasonable to assume that was the intention? Governments aren't single level actors - they are occasionally capable of subtlety - saying one thing even when intending another.
I am not going to debate why "Obama secretly supported ISIS" is stupid.
It's stupid, and if you think it's plausible, you need to honestly evaluate whether your news sources are informing you or peddling a narrative with an objective.
