I have very high hopes for ai/automation. Maybe not 10 years, but can you be sure 20 years is safe? What if your kid started med school in 10 years, and by the time they get through residency they could be replaced by robots? It's a possibility...

I think specific 'parts' of medicine are more adaptable to change... PCP's could be 'mostly' automated. I'm not saying it'll be 100%, but say 20% stay around for a decade or two as management overseeing the robotic slaves -- making sure they have > levels of care and lower death rates than a human would by a magnitude big enough to avoid lawsuits.

There's not a job in sight that can't someday be done better by a robot. Even software developer. I don't know when, I just know on a long enough timeline it's almost inevitable.

I think it will be a step-by-step progress where we create specialized tools first. For example robot that helps with precise suturing. So the surgeon will input all the parameters, and the robot does the suturing. Then we can go to more complex things.

There won't be one robot that can replace a surgeon anytime soon. Surgeons and specialized robots/tools will work side-by-side for some time before that happens.