All available evidence from credible sources seems to back up Crowdstrike's attribution. I'm sure you can find a countervailing argument or two from some credible source, but, to say the least, it does not look like Crowdstrike took a flyer on this.
I don't think the Russia investigation has thing #1 to do with Crowdstrike's IPO or what their business is like, though. That's much simpler: EDR is the new antivirus, antivirus has historically been one of the most lucrative enterprise technology products (to say nothing of security products), and Crowdstrike has a commanding share of the EDR market.