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0 pointsCPLX7y ago0 comments

> The expected value of early stage investing is certainly higher than lotteries in the US.

That’s arguable.

State lotteries are highly regulated and transparent and typically return 50% of their capital to participants.

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That’s fair. For the overall game you can expect to lose 50% though, with a handful of outsized windfalls going to 1/1000000 people.

In principle it’s more about why a poor person can access lotteries but not private investments, not the exact math on E[X]

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

That’s fair. For the overall game you can expect to lose 50% though, with a handful of outsized windfalls going to 1/1000000 people.

In principle it’s more about why a poor person can access lotteries but not private investments, not the exact math on E[X]

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse