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0 pointsheisenbit7y ago0 comments

Roughly 300 737max. Roughly a year in operation. Roughly 100.000 airplane days. Two accidents. The 737max has a safety record that is equal to two accidents per day in global air traffic. Or 700 crashes per year. With roughly 150 seat filled roughly a 100000 dead per year. There is a reason she is grounded and people are concerned.

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6 comments · 4 top-level

ams61107y ago· 2 in thread

Not saying it's the case here but randomness is clumpy not uniform.

Also new models unfortunately sometimes have problems. They'll get it sorted out.

billforsternz7y ago

I suppose flying a recently introduced plane is a bit like being operated on by a young and inexperienced surgeon. Someone's got to do it or else the plane will never get a billion hours of service history / the surgeon will never be 45 years old with 15 years plus of experience and steady hands and sharp eyes.

objektif7y ago

Yeah this was anything but random.

isostatic7y ago

However that's a specific type of plane that may have crashed for unrelated but improbable reasons.

In geenral flying on a scheduled airline is immensely safe. A 777 is no safer or no less safe than an A340.

Unless you fly air france and they decide to divert to Damascus in the middle of a civil war and have a whip round to pay the fuel bill [0], in which case the solution is Don't Fly Air France.

[0] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/...

tfehring7y ago

For comparison, the fatality rate for motor traffic in the US was 8.25 deaths per billion passenger-miles in 2016 ([0], [1], my calculation). There were 7.1 trillion passenger-km of global passenger air traffic flown in 2016 [2]. 100,000 deaths (your estimate) in 7.1 trillion passenger-km is equivalent to 22.6 deaths per billion passenger-miles (my calculation).

In other words, if all global passenger flights were on 737 max planes and the fatality rate continued, flying would be a little under 3x as deadly as driving on US roads on a per-passenger-mile basis, based on your estimate.

[0] https://www.bts.gov/content/us-passenger-miles

[1] (PDF) https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

[2] https://www.icao.int/annual-report-2016/Pages/the-world-of-a...

eternalny17y ago

You're right, but then again they are all grounded.

So website to check what model you are flying (apparently what this about) won't show you you are flying on a 737-MAX.

Aviation has a strong safety culture, and this plane won't be flying again until every aspect of what is going on is thoroughly looked into.

Boeing is in a big mess but safety comes first.

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