Ask HN: Can You Start Coding at 25 and Still Be the Top Coder in a Decade?

Nope, because unlike the 15-24's, you're old enough to realize you're not in the 1% because you never will be. My recommendation? Lie.

Please define your success style. There are versatile programmers who can handle all the stack and mentor others, developer who deliver overly great products even under constraints, programmers who make lots of money, and specialists who are a point of reference for a specific technology. There also are very good all-around developers like John Carmack who also made lots of money... But also Thompson and Ritchie fall in the 1% for sure in my opinion. If you have the problem solving and algorythmic skills you need to be a good developer, age is not really important.

Like winning a lottery, or reaching Olympic 100m standard; some can, 99% won't.

Absolutely, ten years is plenty of time to be in the top 1%, which I take to mean deep knowledge of several technologies, strong analytical/debugging skills, ability to add to and innovate with cutting edge technologies, and preference to get stuff done without fuss or muss.