Google's Waymo risks repeating mistakes of Xerox 40 years ago (opens in new tab)

Summary: Xerox PARC created the first and best personal computer, but didn't release to the market early/often/cheaply enough to learn and dominate. Waymo is similarly perfecting a ride-share service across all of Phoenix at freeway speeds, while its newer competitors are "just" running service under 25 MPH in senior care communities. The smaller competitors may generate real revenue sooner and be better equipped to build real markets for autonomous vehicles.

I think this is a compelling argument -- but it does ignore the bigger picture: ride-hail service is only one type of market for AV manufacturers. Success for some AV companies is being acquired by an auto OEM. Success for others will be being component suppliers. And success will not only be at the mythical "Level 5" of full autonomy. There's money to be made with safety systems for human-driven cars, for mapping systems, and for other AV equipment. Waymo publicly set its sights on one goal -- but it shouldn't eclipse other potential markets along the way.

Xerox didn't give a shit about dominating the market with a GUI-based personal computer. The laser printer alone made enough money to bankroll all of PARC's operations and then some. Everything on top of that was pure gravy.

Google is, and Xerox was, seeding ideas the way VCs seed companies: all they need is one or two that hit the jackpot and it'll all have been worthwhile. If the others aren't fully ripe yet, maybe they'll ripen in time and under other management; it's all good as long as the parent company ends up in the black somehow.

If PARC's GUI research were a business boondoggle, then so is every corporate contribution to open source.