But even if you're right and he did make a great trade, that doesn't make him a genius. He's a gambler and sometimes gets a great hand.
He was super bullish on EOS before it tanked. He very publicly called a bottom[1] for BTC on Sept 13th when it was $6,300 and it's down by ~50% since.
[1] https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1040288811643809798