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0 pointschiefalchemist7y ago0 comments

Correct me if I am wrong, but the primary role of IC analysis is to connect dots that other "lay people" / "civilians" might not normally see. To cross bounds and span silos, etc. in other to add value.

That being said, if this book is afraid to venture outside its safe zone (and mention meta-congition, even in a passing reference) then this book, by defintion, has failed to do what IC analysis is supposed to do. Ironic, huh.

I think it's ssafe to say history is on the side of my analysis of this analysis ;)

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notduncansmith7y ago· 1 in thread

> I think it's ssafe to say history is on the side of my analysis of this analysis ;)

You’ve provided no examples to support this conclusion.

chiefalchemistOP7y ago

Um. The a good number of the known IC mis-analysises are fairly obvious.

If you believe there was Russian election hacking, start there and work your way back. A highlight going back would be the CIA training of UBL. The IC was instrumental in escalating the Vietnam War. Etc.

If the IC's job is to think about thining the unthinkable, they have in fact come up short in a big way often enough. I sincerely didn't think stating the obvious was kosher on HN. Sorry.

ckastner7y ago

The concern you voiced is expected and addressed in the preface of the book:

The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I then translated the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face.

The result is a compromise that may not be wholly satisfactory to either research psychologists or intelligence analysts. Cognitive psychologists and decision analysts may complain of oversimplification [...]

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