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0 pointsDenzel7y ago0 comments

You misunderstand just slightly, and through no fault of your own I might add since SpaceX’s messaging is deliberately murky here.

SpaceX has no plans right now to colonize Mars. In fact, they keep saying, “Look! We want other companies or nations to step up and plan for how to establish a colony. We’re only going to do it if we absolutely have no other choice.”

SpaceX is truly establishing a financially viable solar transport system that may eventually extend beyond our solar system. This is analogous to the birth of the U.S. railroad system. We don’t know yet what what don’t know is possible.

SpaceX is poised to own space transport outright. That’s major!

Now what does Mars have to do with this? It’s just a helpful organizing goal. People love a good milestone. Something to reach for with meaning. I mean if you’ve been following SpaceX’s 15-year history you’d see that they’re nothing if not methodical in their planning and attainment of milestones.

SpaceX is one of the most well-run companies in the world. And right now they have the best prices, the best technology, the best pace, the best outlook, the best...

They have no competition. Literally. I’d invest the entirety of my lifetime earnings in SpaceX if I could. We’re witnessing historic achievements in the making.

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gbear6057y ago

I think for Musk, Mars is more than just a milestone, but he’s able to be realistic enough that he knows that he SpaceX needs to focus on the rockets for now.

jordanthoms7y ago

I agree SpaceX is way ahead, but I wouldn't say they have no competition. Blue Origin is making some very interesting moves.

JanSolo7y ago

Interesting, yes; however in tech, products, partnerships, experience or any other quantifiable measure, Blue Origin is far, far behind SpaceX.

SpaceX has launched many Orbital missions.

Blue Origin has launched none.

SpaceX has two functional, tested, orbital spacecraft in production.

Blue Origin has a sub-orbital pod with goldfishbowl windows that's not quite ready yet.

SpaceX has successfully partnered with NASA for commercial cargo missions to the ISS.

Blue Origin has not.

SpaceX has landed more than a dozen rockets post-flight.

Blue Origin has landed < 10 sub-orbital rockets.

SpaceX has designs for rockets and spacecraft that might plausibly target inter-planetary travel.

Blue Origin has not gotten to orbit yet.

Don't get me wrong; I want Blue Origin to succeed. However, the slope of their progress graph has been much shallower than SpaceXs. I don't see them ever catching or overtaking SpaceX unless something drastically unforseen happens.

tristanb7y ago

SpaceX has landed more than a dozen rockets post-flight. - Its 20 (5 failed)

Retric7y ago

Blue Origin was Founded in 2000 two years before SpaceX and they still have yet to reach LEO. That’s a really bad sign of actual progress. They are optomisic they might be able to launch four years from now assuming schedules don’t slip. But 6+ years from now is more likely.

SmellyGeekBoy7y ago

I'm not sure what's "interesting" about having been around for longer and still having achieved absolutely nothing.

bkor7y ago

The rocket that Blue Origin has developed is very powerful. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4. It'll be used by various companies for their rockets.

The SpaceX rocket has certain trade-offs. Basically the upper stage is not that powerful compared to various other rockets. This is usually not too bad because they go for the cheapest option. Blue Origin might have a huge advantage there though.

Blue Origin is not in a need of money, this drastically changes things. It seems they went first for nailing a super powerful rocket, then to develop something close to the SpaceX BFR called New Glenn (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn).

Note that in various cases people compare expendable versions with reusable versions. Further, SpaceX is often better for lower orbits.

Suggest to follow /r/spacex on reddit. Above is what I learned from reading discussions there.

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