1 - active development is relevant. Is it being updated once a year, once a month. Is it going to take 1 year, 2 or 3 years.
2 - Above is not a deal breaker along. But, the new release is going to break stuff. you need to have ability to plan around things, especially as the new release will have paradigm shift (from what I'm gathering). You don't want to write lines and lines of code, then needing to rewrite it all.
I think what makes it even more unreliable, is lack of any communications. I think part of the problem is, Evan (the creator) probably is still not sure what this future looks like. He is very articulate, but not seeing any blog post update makes a reasonable person assume that this new release has not been fully conceived. So, everyone knows there will be a break change. But who knows what will break, when it will be released, etc.
On top of that, this new update has become a gatekeeper for bunch of pull requests and bugs on the existing system that is not being touched.
The people who sit next to Evan the author of Elm in Action and the biggest users of Elm (Richard Feldman) has pushed back the release of his book by one year. Basically the remaining part of his book, is all the SPA stuff that the version of Elm is supposed deal with. From what I've seen, it seems like even he doesn't know what to expect [0]
Put everything I mentioned together, it makes it hard to recommend Elm for anything your company will be depending on, especially when there are other solutions out there. Why take the risk.