>If Google "stopped licensing Android", most OEMs would fork it at least initiating.
Every OEM release of Android is forked so your statement doesn't make sense.
>Additionally, if Google were to move solely into the Pixel space, it would fail, overtaken by Samsung and other OEMs which know how to run a hardware business.
Google doesn't need to confine their OS to just Pixel devices. They can also work with any OEM that wants to ship the Google version of Android and GMS - (Nokia, Motorola, etc). Given a choice, consumers would easily choose a phone running Android with GMS over any other non iOS device. Furthermore, Google could also close source Android and not continue to give Samsung a free OS to cake their services on. The decline of Samsung as they scramble to make Tizen their only smartphone OS would be entertaining to watch.
>And without the big Android bully in the picture, it's likely new Linux-based OSes would find a place to flourish.
Yes, just like all of those desktop Linux distributions have flourished.
>You are forgetting there are dozens of manufacturers who all have large mobile phone businesses
You mean the same ones that can't write operating systems or secure their devices?