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0 pointsraverbashing7y ago0 comments

it is captured in the 95% but that was probably a bit overestimated (and there are always unknown biases and improbable events can happen)

What's wrong is thinking 95% chance of winning means they will win

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kgwgk7y ago

So it was not captured in the (overestimated) 95% :-) But I agree, the most likely thing, even if the probability was perfectly known, is not always what happens.

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